AGP Executive Report

Jobs and the Economy: Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, erasing this year’s employment gains. The Bank of Canada says slower immigration and an aging population are reshaping the workforce and economy. Trade: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates, led by Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, head to India next week as the two countries seek to advance a trade agreement. Agriculture: Saskatchewan’s harvest is 82% complete after a favourable week lifted progress by 19 points. Yorkton food processors say tariffs have not yet hit core business, but rising costs and trade uncertainty are clouding future plans.

Steel Industry: Stelco says it will proceed with up to 500 layoffs in Hamilton and Nanticoke, arguing the cuts do not breach its federal job commitments. Ottawa had warned the company to explain how it would meet those guarantees. Trade: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates head to India next week, as Ottawa seeks to diversify exports and more than double two-way trade to $70 billion by 2030. Jobs: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, cooling expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike. Food and Farming: Canada’s agri-food trade remains heavily tied to the U.S., which takes about 62% of exports; meanwhile, rain threatens to disrupt Saskatchewan’s late harvest, now 82% complete. Energy and Mining: Saskatchewan and several other provinces are urging Ottawa to expand the mining exploration tax credit to help critical-mineral projects advance.

Jobs and Rates: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, the second monthly decline in a row. The weak report has cooled expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike and eased pressure on fixed mortgage rates. National Unity: Mark Carney faces renewed separatist pressure after the Parti Québécois won Quebec’s election, while Alberta prepares for a referendum. Pierre Poilievre plans to deliver a unity speech in Alberta next week. Steel and Trade: Stelco layoffs are mounting as U.S. tariffs squeeze the Hamilton steelmaker. A legal expert says Ottawa should consider nationalizing the company to protect jobs and industrial capacity. Energy and Bills: Ontario is promoting nuclear expansion as a way to build at home amid trade tensions, while Calgary’s aging water system could mean years of steep bill increases to fund $6.5 billion in upgrades. Global Justice: Canada has backed the International Criminal Court after Washington announced sanctions aimed at cutting off the tribunal from U.S. financial services and technology. Canadian Business: The Weston family agreed to buy British pharmacy chain Boots in an $8.9-billion deal, expanding the reach of the owners of Loblaw and Shoppers Drug Mart.

Jobs and Steel: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, the second monthly decline, pushing unemployment to 6.5%. Pierre Poilievre unveiled a steel plan and urged Ottawa to sue Stelco’s U.S. owner as about 500 layoffs loom; Unifor is also polling workers on possible strike action. Energy and Investment: RBC says proposed oil, gas and pipeline projects could drive more than $200 billion in construction through 2040. Separately, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced $2 billion to help retrofit one million homes and cut energy costs. National Unity: An Alberta separatist leader denied offering U.S. officials access to provincial resources in exchange for support. Poilievre plans a Canadian unity speech ahead of Alberta’s referendum, while Quebec’s sovereigntist Parti Québécois has returned to power in a minority government. Markets: The TSX gained 519 points Friday, as weak jobs data cooled expectations of near-term Bank of Canada rate hikes.

Home Energy: Prime Minister Mark Carney announced $2 billion in rebates to help retrofit one million Canadian homes, including with heat pumps, with the program expected to launch early next year. Food Costs: Diesel prices were up 75% year over year in August, and economists warn higher transport costs could push grocery prices up this winter, particularly for imported fresh produce. Growth Outlook: Deloitte raised its forecast for this year but cut next year’s growth outlook from 2% to 1.6%, citing a tougher period ahead as trade pressures build. Energy and Emissions: A proposed LNG expansion in Metro Vancouver faces scrutiny after company projections showed nitrogen dioxide levels could exceed federal air-quality guidelines near homes, schools and child-care centres.

Steel and Trade: Stelco layoffs have begun, with Cleveland-Cliffs saying workers could be recalled if Canada and the U.S. reach a steel deal. Ottawa has warned the company over the cuts. Major Projects: Bill C-39 passed its first House vote and heads to committee, as the Carney government seeks to speed approvals and diversify trade. Energy Costs: Ottawa plans $2 billion in heat-pump rebates for homeowners, while construction has started on LNG Canada’s Phase 2 expansion, which is expected to double production and bring up to 4,000 jobs at peak. Agriculture: Saskatchewan’s harvest is 82% complete, behind the five- and 10-year averages. Canadian farmland values rose 3.8% in the first half of 2026, while Ontario’s Thanksgiving turkey dinner is forecast to cost 10% more than last year.

Trade: Canada’s merchandise surplus widened to C$4.2 billion in August, up from a revised C$787 million in July, as exports to the U.S. surged 8.1% and imports fell. Climate and Energy: Oil and gas emissions declined in 2025 despite higher production, but overall emissions rose about 1% to 691 million tonnes, putting Canada further off its climate targets. Pipeline Debate: Indigenous leaders say they were left out of plans for the proposed Pacific Link pipeline and warn of risks to water, wildlife and territory as Ottawa fast-tracks review. Steel Jobs: Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has warned Stelco’s U.S. owner to present a plan to meet job commitments, threatening “the full force of the law” if it fails to comply. Critical Minerals: South Korea’s LG Energy Solution secured a three-year deal for up to 330,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate from Quebec, bolstering North American battery supply. Agriculture: Farmland values rose 3.8% in the first half of 2026, a slower pace than last year, while steep diesel costs are forcing some farmers to rethink fieldwork.

Major Deals: Canada’s Weston family, partnering with Fairfax Financial, will buy U.K. pharmacy chain Boots for US$8.9 billion, with the deal expected to close in 2027. Cenovus agreed to acquire Athabasca Oil for C$5.7 billion, while Suncor will sell offshore stakes to Ithaca Energy for C$1.2 billion. Utilities: Emera and Canadian Utilities plan a C$72-billion merger, as ATCO spins off its industrial services business. Trade and Jobs: Canada’s August trade surplus widened to C$4.2 billion, but recent data shows the U.S. still takes nearly 62% of Canadian agri-food exports. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly warned Stelco’s U.S. owner it must honour job commitments or face enforcement as layoffs loom. Markets: The S&P/TSX fell more than 600 points Wednesday.

NHL Spotlight: The Carolina Hurricanes handed the Montreal Canadiens a familiar home-opener sting, winning 6-4 in a rematch of last spring’s Eastern Conference final as Taylor Hall scored twice and Montreal’s 19 giveaways proved costly. Mining & Environment: The UASD Environmental Commission is pressing Dominican authorities for clarity after Canadian firm GoldQuest renewed promotion of a San Juan de la Maguana mining district, arguing the company is framing a halt as only “temporary.” Nuclear Research in Quebec: Polytechnique Montréal is marking the 50th anniversary of its Slowpoke reactor and hopes the milestone revives nuclear studies in a province where expertise is fading. Housing Trade-offs: A Re/Max survey says 65% of Canadians would compromise to buy a home that better fits their needs, often by moving farther out or choosing older properties needing work. Fire Safety: Firefighters warn lithium battery fires are hard to extinguish, driving bans and hesitancy as Fire Prevention Week spotlights the risk in homes and storage sites. Canada-U.S. Trade: Experts say the renewed tariff cycle could hit Canadians through higher prices, fewer choices, and longer waits, reshaping consumer expectations and politics. Immigration Signals: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa is considering when to resume a “controlled increase” after sharp cuts, drawing immediate pushback from Conservatives.

Domestic Safety Law: Manitoba proposes removing limitation periods for civil claims tied to intimate partner violence and “coercive control,” aiming to let survivors sue regardless of when abuse occurred. Trade & Tariffs: StatsCan reports Canadian exports to the U.S. jumped 8.1% in August ahead of new 50% tariff threats, pushing the Canada-U.S. trade surplus to nearly $11.2B. Energy Mega-Merger: Emera and ATCO’s Canadian Utilities plan an all-stock deal to create a $72B utility “powerhouse,” with ATCO’s industrial services spun out separately. Pipeline Politics: Carney’s Pacific Link push continues amid stalled Canada-U.S. talks and labour/project changes in Parliament, while Indigenous leaders warn the “national interest” label isn’t a done deal. Education Integrity: Ontario refers OSAP payment concerns at private career colleges to the OPP after preliminary audit findings flagged serious integrity issues. Housing & Finance: BlackRock survey finds older Canadians are less confident about retirement, while a separate report notes Canadians are tipping less and hospitality workers feel it. Business/Markets: TSX rose on tech strength; meanwhile, multiple corporate updates include dividend news from Goodfellow and a private placement close by GoldInxs Mining.

Quebec Separatism Shock: The Parti Québécois won a narrow minority in Quebec’s election, setting up a tougher fight for PM Mark Carney on national unity and raising the odds of a future referendum. Climate Court Fight: Canada-linked Suncor is pulled into a major U.S. Supreme Court climate case over who should pay for warming damages, with justices focused on how to assign legal responsibility. Housing & Retirement Pressure: New reporting highlights how renters and late-life homeowners are facing housing costs that don’t neatly disappear, pushing advisors to treat equity and liquidity as retirement essentials. Labour Law Showdown: Proposed changes to Canada’s strike rules would let the federal labour minister end certain work stoppages, reigniting a dispute over workers’ rights and Parliament’s oversight. Energy & Industry Deals: Cenovus agreed to buy Athabasca Oil in a $5.7B deal, while Suncor moved to sell offshore stakes to Ithaca Energy, both aimed at refocusing oilsands and portfolios. Food Security Push: Ottawa’s $1B Food-Link Fund backs terminals and regional hubs to improve Canada’s food distribution and affordability.

Pacific Link Pipeline: Canada cleared a major regulatory step for the Pacific Link crude pipeline, naming it a Project of National Interest and pointing to a construction start targeted for 2027 and first oil no sooner than 2032—while South Korea’s growing demand will have to fit within existing pipeline limits in the meantime. Energy & Markets: The TSX edged up Monday as tech led gains, while Scotiabank warned diesel and crude shocks tied to the Iran war could push up food and other costs across Canada. Oil Patch Deals: Suncor is selling Atlantic offshore interests to Ithaca Energy, as Cenovus expands its oilsands footprint with an Athabasca acquisition—moves that underscore shifting priorities amid pipeline timelines. Agriculture & Food Security: AAFC confirmed a Seed Increase Unit transition plan (Indian Head in 2027, full move to Saskatoon in 2028) and launched a $1B Food-Link Fund to build terminals and regional food hubs. Local Politics: North Shore civic election Q&As spotlight housing, transit, and school funding pressures ahead of Oct. 17 voting. Business & Finance: Bond-market “credibility” concerns are back in focus, with KPMG suggesting they could pressure the Bank of Canada’s rate path. Consumer Watch: A new report says Canadians’ buy-Canadian sentiment is holding strong, even as grocery prices test loyalty.

Energy & Cost of Living: The G7 pledged a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel to cool global prices, with Canada offering refinery scheduling as it lacks a strategic petroleum reserve. Trade & Tariffs: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are flagged as a driver of higher winter heating costs, while U.S.–Canada trade talks remain in limbo amid tariff pressure. Canada–India Dealmaking: India and Canada kick off the 5th CEPA round in Ottawa (Oct. 5–9), with energy, critical minerals, aerospace and AI in focus and a target to double trade to $70B. Housing Delivery: Build Canada Homes is only building about 2,000 of roughly 19,000 committed affordable units so far, as it works through land transfers and intergovernmental deals. Payments Modernization: Payments Canada approved six new members, expanding access to its systems under updated payments rules. Food & Farming: The Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance rebranded as Canadian Seafood Farmers, pitching aquaculture as “agriculture” tied to food security. Arctic Readiness: CBC reports Canadian troops in Alaska training were sometimes ill-prepared for Arctic conditions, raising questions about equipment and basic skills.

International Spotlight: Barrie tap instructor Heather Dennis is set to represent Canada at the IDO World Tap Dance Championship in Prague later this month. Climate & Voting: “Greys for Green” is urging Canadians to treat municipal elections as climate policy in action, arguing local decisions on land use, transit, and energy planning shape resilience. Energy & Regulation: Quebec is reconsidering its four-year oil-and-gas development ban after years of legal fights with industry over exploration licences and damages. Consumer Protection (Alberta): St. Albert and solar advocates are pushing Alberta to tighten rules on door-to-door solar sales, citing high-pressure tactics and misinformation about the CEIP program. Border & Travel: Canada says Nexus enrolment interview scheduling rules are changing again, with a return to a two-year booking window starting April 1, 2027. Trade & Cost of Living: Coverage highlights how the Canada–U.S. tariff fight could raise costs for businesses and consumers in U.S. battleground states ahead of midterms. Agriculture: A Manitoba Agriculture specialist warns that spraying mature waterhemp after it sets seed won’t fix the seed-bank problem—money is better spent on next season’s control. Public Safety Recall: HotHands Rechargeable Hand Warmers are being recalled in the U.S. for overheating and fire risk; about 72 units were sold in Canada.

Canada–U.S. trade and politics: A new U.S. import ban on Canadian goods is taking effect, adding fresh uncertainty for cross-border business while Trump continues to single out Canada in tariff fights. Energy & infrastructure: Ottawa has designated the “Pacific Link” oil pipeline as a first project of national interest, a move that could speed approvals but also lands amid Alberta’s separation referendum. National security & tech: Experts warn China’s low-cost EVs could pose security risks as Ottawa’s tariff approach shifts; meanwhile, Canada’s spy agency is overhauling hiring to meet operational needs. AI policy: Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a National Council on Artificial Intelligence to guide adoption, safety, and sovereignty. Human rights & courts: Recent BC cases highlight the growing power of human rights tribunals, including disputes involving religion and expression. Science & cost of living: U of T researchers unveiled a pigment-shifting window concept that could cut energy use by managing heat seasonally. Public safety: A medical aircraft carrying Canadians is still missing off Nantucket after debris was found and searches continue. Sports: Canada beat Peru 2-0 in a men’s friendly, with Shaffelburg scoring twice.

AI & Governance: Prime Minister Mark Carney launched a 13-member National Council on Artificial Intelligence to guide Canada’s AI rollout, balancing faster adoption with safety and sovereignty. Energy & Prices: The G7 and the IEA say they’ve released about 325 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves, with a coordinated push for 100 million barrels over four months to calm global fuel markets. Trade & Tariffs: Ottawa’s Sept. 8 countertariffs on 629 U.S. tariff lines (about $27.6B in annual imports) are now in effect, but trade analysts say many costs may be softened by remission orders. Affordability (Groceries): B.C. NDP leader David Eby promised a price cap on essentials sold by large grocers, plus new competition rules—while economists warn it could trigger shortages. Health Tech: Cerebral Diagnostics Canada says it received a U.S. patent for using machine learning and brain signals to evaluate pain disorders. Sports: Jacob Shaffelburg scored twice as Canada beat Peru 2-0 in a men’s friendly.